EBC Props

Posts

NBA Team Win Totals Forecast

/ NBA / By

With Team Win Totals just recently released, it is handy to get in early on targeted spots before seeing too much line movement. With the majority of free agency and trade moves completed, we are provided with a much more well-rounded outlook of how the 23/24 NBA season will unfold. While there are teams I am waiting to analyse dependent on upcoming trades (Harden & Philly, Dame & Portland/Miami ect), there are few early lines I like enough to take given the information we have received already throughout the free agency period.

Charlotte Hornets O30.5 wins (2U) (-110)

The Hornets are coming off an abysmal 27 win season, enough to secure them the 4th worst record in the NBA. This season, their win total is now listed at 30.5, which is slightly too low in my opinion.

Firstly, they get LaMelo Ball back. Melo managed just 36 games in an injury interrupted season, after coming off a 75 games 21/22 season. While his overall efficiency was down this season, he still put up great numbers. He shot the 3 ball at 37.6%, FT at 83.6% and was a strong scorer on the team, averaging 23.3 PPG. Where I think he makes the most impact is his distribution. He has continued to develop year-on-year as a strong distributor, averaging 8.4 assists per game on 14.3 potential assists per game (7th highest league wide), up from 7.6 APG the season prior. He will absorb a lot of the defensive focus and create high quality looks for his surrounding team mates. He is also the first Hornets player to sign a rookie max, so there is a lot of expectation on his shoulders this season.

Secondly, Miles Bridges returns after signing a 1 year contract. Despite the fact I don’t think he should be playing professional basketball anymore, he is, and that then becomes a big factor for this Hornets team. In his most recent season playing 21/22, Bridges put up 20.2 ppg, 7 rpg and 3.8 apg on 49.1%/33.1%/80.2% splits. Correspondingly, the Hornets went 43-39 that year, a stark difference to their most recent 27 win season. The team at the time was also relatively the same, with the only differences being Harrell, McDaniels, Martin and Plumlee were still on the roster. To me, these are relatively insignificant losses, especially since Richards, Williams and Jones are all relatively competent and developing centers and they added Brandon Miller with pick 2 in the draft.

Speaking on Miller, I expect him to slot in and make a meaningful impact from the jump. While I’m not expecting any ludicrous output, his skillset does complement the Hornets weaknesses. Last season, the Hornets were ranked 3rd last in 3PM and 2nd last in 3PT%. Miller is coming off a season shooting 38.4% from 3pt range on 7.5 attempts per game. There will be a transition period for Miller given the NBA 3pt line is a couple feet further, however, he has a good stroke and solid fundamentals to underpin a relatively seamless transition – in theory.

Further, Miller adds some much needed length and defensive versatility to a team who ranked 20th in defensive rating last season. At 6’9 with a 7’2 wingspan, Miller is primed to play multiple positions and meaningfully impact the defensive end of the floor. This is something very much ingrained into his identity as a player, evident throughout the draft process.

“I think I’ve always kinda taken pride on the defensive side. I think, last year, I started taking charges so I have that under my belt. I remember in high school, I never took charges. I was just blocking everybody’s shot at the rim. I think one thing for me is just giving my body up and making winning plays. I think that separates me.”

After recording just 27 wins, I think the return of both Bridges and Ball, alongside the addition of Miller should see some serious impact on their win column. Its a spot I like at 30.5, but probably wouldn’t bet on if it goes past 31.5.

Houston Rockets O31.5 wins (4U) (-131)

This was a tough season to watch, amassing just 22 wins, the Rockets ended up with the joint 2nd worst record alongside the Spurs, only beat out by a Pistons team with just 17 wins. With little to no veteran leadership and a coach lacking the gusto to effectively discipline and rally the squad, it was always going to be a sinking ship this season. Houston had the 6th worst ‘clutch’ record last season, winning just 40% in clutch situations. Clutch record or winning% is a team’s win-loss record in games that include clutch minutes (minutes when the scoring margin is within 5 points with five or fewer minutes remaining in a game).

The biggest positive impact I foresee will be the signing of Van Vleet. The Rockets have been in desperate need of a proper point guard since the departure of Harden. Last season, KPJ led the team in assists, at just 5.7 apg. While he filled the role of PG well, he is most aptly suited to a score-first role, which the introduction of FVV will facilitate. Last year FVV averaged 7.3 apg (14th highest NBA wide and 12th highest out of PGs) along with 13 potential assists per game. An effective facilitator will create more high quality looks for team mates and allow the Rockets personnel to play true to their strengths, with KPJ the biggest benefactor to this.

I also quite like the fact Amen Thompson will likely be leading the bench unit, another true point guard who showed his flashes in the Summer League (which was unfortunately cut short due to a sprained ankle). I think his impact will be more prevalent over the long term however.

A close second, and arguably far more impactful in the longterm, is the signing of Udoke. After being alienated from Boston for his misdemeanours within the organisation, it seems like he has put a lot of effort into reshaping his values and morals. Regardless of this, everyone knows the coaching ability Udoke has. Learning from the best in San Antonio as an Assistant Coach for 7 years, Udoke led the 21/22 Celtics to a 51-31 record, a stark improvement from their previous 36-36 record. While Boston were a star studded team with Tatum and Brown, the Rockets do have talent he will be able to mould, alongside the elite coaching staff he has brought with him to Houston.

Lastly, I expect to see a strong cultural shift towards implementing a defensive oriented mindset. You can say what you want about Brooks inefficiencies on the offensive end, but it is clear as day he is an elite defender and as a veteran presence will no doubt be looking to push defence as a cornerstone of the Rockets culture. Last year, Brooks was selected to the NBA All-Defensive team, after he held opponents to shooting percentages 3% lower compared to other defenders, the best marks among perimeter players all season. He also recorded a 108.5 defensive rating (6th best NBA wide) and ranked in the 95th percentile for DEPM. With budding young stars in wings Tari Eason and Jabari Smith, Brooks will be a great mentor to continue their rapid defensive uptrend.

Indiana Pacers O35.5 Total Wins (2U) (-144)

The Pacers have slowly created a quietly strong squad, building primarily through the draft and apt trades. Last year the Pacers strung together a 35 win season, so I’m surprised to see the line set at just 35.5 with their additions.

The addition of Bruce Brown is a significant piece in the puzzle and while $22.5M is a fair chunk, it’s the price you pay for championship experience. Coming off a season averaging 11.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg and 3.4 apg on efficient splits of 48.3% FG/ 35.8% 3PT/ 75.8% FT, Brown is primed for a big season in Indiana, after attempting just 9.3 field goals per game in Denver.

The Pacers have also filled their biggest depth hole, the power forward spot, by trading for an under utilised high potential player in Toppin and drafting Walker. Receiving just 17.1 mpg in the 21/22 and 15.7 mpg in the 22/23 season, Toppin is a player who could thrive in this Indiana system. He saw a big jump in 3PT% to 34.4% this season, up from 30.8% the season prior. With an elite facilitator in Haliburton, I have no doubt the high flyer connection will be something we see a lot of this season. In 15 career starts for NYK, Toppin averaged 20.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3.1 apg and 1.6 spg on 56.7% FG and 44% 3pt.

Walker should come in an have an immediate impact. He is a versatile player with strengths on both side of the ball. He is the prototypical NBA wing, comprised of the ‘3 and D’ profile required for NBA success. A 7’2 wingspan and elite athleticism will enable Walker to guard multiple positions and will make him a dangerous help defender, as well as stretching the floor offensively after shooting the 3 ball at a 34.7% clip last season. He’s also a surprisingly strong playmaker, aided by the fact he played point guard in high school.

Overall, I think the Pacers have managed to build a very balanced team after addressing their biggest needs this off-season. A guard group of Haliburton, Hield, Nembhard, Mathurin and McConnell is the right blend of offensive threat, defensive capability and passing talent. Wings in Brown, Walker, Nwora and Nesmith complementing Turner, Toppin and Smith is just a very well rounded squad in my opinion. I have projected the Pacers to be closer to the 38/39 win mark and would comfortably play this up to 36.5.

If you are interested in our MIP predictions for the NBA season, you can find them HERE.