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NBA Most Improved Player Candidates 23/24

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An integral part of the end of season awards, the NBA Most Improved Player is always an interesting culmination of development within the league. After being traded to Utah from the Cavs, Lauri saw an increased role on a rebuilding Utah team – which he took full advantage of. Averaging 25.6 ppg and 8.6 rpm on 49.9% FG/ 39.1% 3pt/ 87.5% FT shooting splits saw him awarded the 23/24 NBA MIP award. This was a big year-on-year increase in production, improving from 14.8 ppg and also seeing an improvement in shooting splits across the board.

Now, looking at a bit further at what usually makes a NBA Most Improved Player candidate. As of late, there has been an increasing amount of MIP’s who also receive a corresponding All NBA accolade. However, historically has there been a correlation? Digging into it, we can see this is relatively unprecedented. Prior to Giannis winning MIP in 2017, only five players made All-NBA in their respective years awarded. These were Robertson (1986), Johnson (1989), McGrady (2001), PG (2013) and Dragic (2014). After this, Giannis (2017), Oladipo (2018), Randle (2021) and Morant (2022) round out the list. Therefore, in the history of the MIP award, there have only been 9 corresponding All-NBA nominations, 6 of these occurring in the last 10 years.

The criteria also tends to favour more tenured players, opposed to fresh rookies. A list of the last ten winners below reflects this:

  • Dragic (Year 7)
  • Butler (Year 4)
  • McCollum (Year 3)
  • Giannis (Year 4)
  • Oladipo (Year 5)
  • Siakam (Year 3)
  • Ingram (Year 4)
  • Randle (Year 7)
  • Morant (Year 3)
  • Markkanen (Year 6)

CJ McCollum, Kevin Love and Ja Morant are the youngest players to in the last decade to win the accolade. It will almost be impossible for 2nd year NBA players to win this award. Lottery NBA talent likely will have high expectations coming into the league and will have had a decent 1st year. This will require an astronomical increase in production to garner eligibility. Later picks are also unlikely to see a big role change required to see the corresponding increase in output.

Realistically, the optimal candidates are in their 3rd year or later and will experience either a positive role change (traded to new team ect) or should see significant progression due to team circumstance. Given that, there are a few candidates I like in my ‘way too early MIP predictions.’

Mikal Bridges

Being part of a franchise altering trade involving KD was always going to put the spotlight on Bridges – he didn’t disappoint. Going from a 3 and D 3rd option on the Suns averaging 17.2 PPG, to a rebuilding Nets team without an identity provided him with a huge opportunity. He excelled as the primary scorer for the Nets, averaging 26.1 PPG on 47.5% FG/ 37.6% 3PT/ 89.4% FT in 26 games. Now, as the franchise player with the whole season ahead of him, it isn’t hard to see why he is the heavy favourite preseason for MIP.

Jordan Poole

Entering his 5th year, Poole is a prime candidate for the NBA Most improved Player accolade, especially with a big role change expected after recently being traded to the Wizards. Averaging 20.4 PPG on 43% FG/ 33.6% 3PT/ 87% FT and 4.5 APG, he was a key contributor to a strong Warriors team, especially during Steph’s absence due to injury. Without Curry (over 26 games), Poole saw his production increase to 26.1 PPG and 5 APG.

The Wizards did make a few off-season moves for guard depth outside of Poole, bringing in Tyus Jones and Landry Shamet, alongside the already existing guards (Wright and Davis). I think we see Poole lock down the shooting guard role and with the keys to the offence should see similar production to that stretch without Curry.

Scottie Barnes

In similar thinking to Poole, Scottie is primed for a big year after the departure of Van Vleet to the Rockets. ‘Point Guard Scottie’ is something we only got to see glimpses of last year, but there’s a good chance we see more this year despite Schroder’s signing. Regardless, Barnes should see a ton of usage, especially siwnce Van Vleet had the teams second highest usage rate (22.5%), behind Siakam (27%). Barnes registered the 4th highest team wide (20%), which should see a bump this year. He’s been relatively efficient his first two years in the league, averaging 15.3 PPG in both seasons, shooting 49.2% and 45.6% FG respectively in these two years.

The biggest opportunity I foresee is an increase in FGA, after averaging just over 13 FGA per game last season. FVV’s exit sees an additional 16.1 FGA per game needing to be distributed amongst the team, of which Barnes should be a bit beneficiary.

Alperen Şengün

Sengun saw a big jump between his rookie and sophomore season, seeing meaningful increases across all major statistical categories. Mini Jokic went from averaging 9.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG and 2.6 APG on splits of 47.4%/ 24.8%/ 71.1% to 14.8 PPG, 9 RPG and 3.9 APG on 55.3%/ 33.3%/ 71.5% splits. This was largely due to an increase in minutes from 20.7 per game to 28.9, but he will play a big part of the Rockets development again this year.

Udoke is light years ahead of Silas as a head coach, so schematically Sengun should be incorporated more effectively into the offense. By December 2022, Sengun ranked just 29th amongst all centers for minutes per game. This could be due to his lapses in concentration defensively in drop coverage and also the fact he doesn’t offer much rim support at 6’9. However, he’s apparently seen a massive growth spurt over the off-season, to the point where he’s allegedly 6’11 without shoes. If this is the case, the case can be made that he has the potential to be a legitimate rim protector alongside his offensive capabilities.

He’s received some high praise around the league, with Jokic being one of those chiming in about his talent.

“I think he’s really talented. Maybe this is going to sound weird, but I think they need to play a little bit more through him. Sometimes they look a little bit more stagnant… with all their 3s. This guy has the talent. He can pass the ball, He can post up, he has the touch around the rim. You can see some different moves that he’s made.”

Further, with more talent injected into the Rockets through free agents and the draft, he should get better facilitation and looks. At just 21, armed with an offensive arsenal of crafty hooks and immaculate footwork, he’s primed to have another big year, especially given his rebounding tenacity.

Shaedon Sharpe

I’m hesitant to put Sharpe in here given no Sophmore has ever won the NBA Most Improved Player, however, with a huge role change incoming, he has the opportunity to explode this season. Superstar guard Lillard has requested a trade and looks to be forcing his way to Miami, leaving a massive guard hole to fill.

Averaging just 9.9 PPG in his first season, at a glance it appears to be slightly underwhelming. However, they’re a few factors which speak to his immense potential. Firstly, while only attempting 8.1 field goals per game, Sharpe took advantage of the opportunities that he was presented with. He shot efficient splits of 47.2% FG/ 36% 3PT/ 71.4% FT – while his FT% has some room for improvement, the other two splits are very strong. Secondly, he finished the back end of the season strong, receiving more minutes and usage, on which he converted. Over the last 10 games of the season he averaged 23.7 PPG,  shooting under 44% FG just three times.

If Lillard is dealt, a three guard front of Simons, Scoot and Sharpe should see significant usage and an opportunity for Sharpe to see an increased role will appear. The only thing that may hinder this is if Herro is included in the trade, though I imagine Portland might be angling for other assets given a backlog of talented young guards could stunt development.

Trey Murphy

Entering his 3rd season, Murphy is a dark horse for the NBA Most Improved Player – one I love at his long price. After seeing just 13 minutes per game in his rookie season (5.4 PPG on 39.4% FG/ 38.2% 3PT/ 88.2% FT), Murphy saw a massive spike in minutes in his 2nd year, accompanied by a significant increase in output. Playing over 30 min per game, Murphy averaged 14.5 PPG on extremely efficient splits of 48.4%/ 40.6%/ 90.5%. He steadily progressed throughout the season, impressing especially in the backend – averaging 20.4 PPG in his last 19 games.

The biggest threat to his development is the return of Zion, which will result in potential lineup changes. Zion slotting into power forward will mean the last starting position will likely come down to Murphy v Herb Jones. I lean towards Murphy starting more often than not given he adds significant shooting – especially in a lineup where both Valanciunas and Zion don’t have this in their offensive arsenal. Not only was he elite from 3pt range (40.6%), he was elite from deep too – shooting 42.9% on 84 attempts from 28 feet to half court, the 2nd highest 3PT% NBA wide in this stat. He creates a lot of space for his team mates and make it much harder for any doubles to go to Zion, especially when he is waiting for a kick out pass on the wing.

Jones could be implemented in certain schemes where they need extra defensive versatility and length, but I think this will be less frequent. On top of this, Murphy is an integral piece to their transition offence, generating 1.141 points per possession on 71 EFG% on over 3 possession per game, as seen below. Either way, regardless of who starts between the two, Murphy should still see strong minutes.

 

Jalen Johnson

Honestly, this is a bit more of a vibes selection, but after Collins was traded for Patty Mills, the opportunity emerges for Johnson to have a lot more involvement this year. He now moves into second on the Hawks depth chart at the PF spot, behind Saddiq Bey – who played more at the SF spot last year. Snyder has seemed to take a liking to him, giving him much more opportunity than McMilan did. In the final five games on the season, he averaged 11.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.2 APG alongside 1.4 BPG and 1.8 SPG – all this on 56.8% FG.

He is the only remaining big on the roster capable of crashing the glass to secure a rebound and then simultaneously ignite a fast break, opening up countless of fast break opportunities. At 6’8 with excellent lateral quickness and the length to guard multiple positions, he is a candidate who should see strong minutes this year after holding his own in the playoffs. The most obvious limitation to his game is his inability to stretch the floor (28.8% 3PT), but I have no doubt this would have been a key area of focus for development over the offseason. It would take the perfect culmination of increased minutes and 3pt efficiency, however, if it did come together, Jalen would well and truly be in the running for the NBA Most Improved Player Award.