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EPL 23/24 Futures

/ EPL, Football / By

For all the football enjoyers, the EPL season is upon us. It is almost like being a kid at Christmas, slowly ticking down the hours before the first game kick offs, signalling the start of what undoubtedly will be a chaotic, mesmerising and enthralling season. As a keen FPL manager, I’ll be attentively following the majority of EPL games and have done for a considerable period of time now. Given that, there are a few futures that particularly caught my eye going into the season.

Wolverhampton U39.5 points ($1.72) (3U)

Wolves are simply in shambles. While they finished 13th last season in the EPL (41 points), they actually had the 3rd worst XG league wide. They’ve also lost Neves, Collins, Coady and Jimenez and have so far failed to make any meaningful replacements. Their coach, Lopetegui, has left his job as just days before the start of the season after the club – common consensus around his departure was that fact he would get no funding support to improve the squad, despite their losses. All this points towards a regression towards the mean to match their XG, opposed to another over performing season. With solid investment and/or retention from similar EPL clubs, Wolves look set to struggle.

Villa O58.5 total points ($2.15) (Bet 365) (3U)

After the introduction of Emery, Villa were a completely different outfit. They won fifteen of their twenty-five league games under Emery and secured 49 points from a possible 75 after his appointment. Only 1st-place City, 2nd-place Arsenal, 3rd-place Man U and 5th-place Liverpool secured more points after Emery was put in charge. As well as Emery’s quality, they made the astute off-season signings of Torres, Tielemens and Diaby to bolster the squad. They now have serious depth across all lines, something I think will be incredibly important for their longevity over the course of the season. In general, they’ve managed to piece together a squad with ability to rotate between their plethora of defensive options based on matchups – an option all managers want to have. Mings, Konsa, Torres, Moreno, Cash and Digne is a great backline squad and with Emery at the helm, I do like the attacking options he may implement to support their surges forward.

Rashford Top Man U Scorer ($2) (Bet 365) (4U)

Rashford is coming off a flier, scoring 17 goals last season in the EPL despite only starting in 32 games. Bruno was the next highest goal scorer, finishing on 9 and is likely his biggest threat this season too. While Bruno may be on penalties and set pieces, I think we’ll likely see him playing as one of two 8s with Mason Mount. This could at times mean we don’t see him progress as far up in attacking breaks, limiting his attacking involvement. He is the talisman forward and think he will continue to dominate this, despite the signing of Hojlund, who should be slowly integrated into the team given his injury. He’s also a project buy given his youth – scored 9 goals in his 32 appearances last season.

Salah Top Liverpool Scorer ($2.50) (365) (3U)

Rotation, rotation, rotation. That’s the key factor for me in this one. Salah is locked as a starter, on penalties and led the team with 19 goals last season. This leaves Jota, Gakpo, Diaz and Nunez fighting for the remaining spots. Darwin is his biggest threat in my opinion. He managed 9 goals in a season he struggled in, yet registered a XG of 14.37. I think the combination of minutes rotation and his poor finishing should see Salah come out on top. Even if Darwin is more clinical this season, Salah should see a ton of minutes and this still gives him the upper hand.

Brighton U58 points ($1.90) (2U)

Brighton were a bit of a surprise packet in the 22/23 season, finishing on 62 points, following on a 51 point season prior. They played some phenomenal football, led by a strong core group consisting of Mac Allister, Caicedo, Mitoma and March. While I think they’ll perform well again this season, there are a few factors that I believe will contribute to a slight drop off the the Seagulls. Firstly, Europa League always inevitably takes its toll on squads, especially those who haven’t previously been accustomed to the extra matches. Brighton should be able to get through most of the group stages unscathed given their depth, however, I’m expecting it to take a bigger toll as they advance and have to player tougher competition. Secondly, the departure of key players that are yet to see adequate replacements is worrying. Mac Allister left to Liverpool early in the transfer window and it looks like Caicedo will see a late exit after seeking a moving since almost the mid point of last season. While Mac Allister is a loss, he’s slightly lore replaceable than Caicedo, who if he leaves, will mean Brighton are significantly weaker. Brighton had a similar situation last year with Bissouma leaving, however, Caicedo was more match ready after being out on loan and playing a few games with Bissouma. This time round, Brighton are less stocked – I just don’t think Alzate is ready either.

Ederson Golden Glove Winner ($2) (2U)

City come into this EPL season after a really strong defensive campaign, conceding just 33 goals against for the season. While the Golden Glove only takes into account clean sheets, I think it is reflective of their status as a defensive juggernaut. Man U topped the clean sheets last year (17), with City coming in at 4th (13). There were a few defensive lapses in games they had already taken control of which contributed to their lack of clean sheets despite limited goals against. Over the off-season, City has only got even better defensively. They signed Kovacic and made a big splash, shelling out close to $90M for Gvardiol. With a fully healthy defence coming into the season, there is no doubt they have the best defence in the league. Stones, Gvardiol, Ake, Akanji, Dias and Walker, with Rodri and Kovacic parked up in front. It is a short price, but at even money I think this is too good to pass up on given the strength of the City backline.