NBA season is back like it never left. A breakout 50pt game from emerging star Maxey, 36/21/11 statline from Jokic – which insanely seems almost normal for him, that’s the standard he’s set, 64pts from Giannis and 37/16 game from Haliburton – there’s been a menagerie of high level performances. In saying that, it’s time to review the early season team bolters, AKA, teams that have surprised early.
Orlando Magic
Finishing the last NBA season 34-48 last, all in all Orlando looked relatively disappointing outside of Wagner and Banchero. They posted the 13th worst defensive rating and the 5th worst offensive rating. Going to the draft they then picked up guards Anthony Black and Jett Howard.
Fast forward to this NBA season and the Magic are sitting 3rd in defensive ranking and 15th in offensive ranking, a sizeable jump from their aforementioned lows. As a result, they’re sitting 4th in the East, with a 16-9 record. They’ve notched up some impressive wins against the Lakers (19pt win), Bucks (15 pt win), 2 x Bulls (2pt & 6pt win), Raptors (19pt win), Nuggets (5pt win) and Celtics (17pt win). Earlier this season they won 7 straight for the first time since 2011/12.
The Magic have a bright future ahead of them, achieving all this despite being the 5th youngest team in the NBA. This is clearly a team that has drafted players that have bought into the Magic culture and they have a strong belief in the team they’ve built.
““I believe so. Everybody in the building believes so,” #Magic forward Franz Wagner (30 points) said when asked post-game if Orlando (12-5) can keep up this level of winning. “When we walk in the building, we believe that we win that day.”
Two factors have gone under the radar during the Magic’s success, masked by the dominant performances of both Banchero and Wagner – the development of Suggs and the importance of the Magic’s bench.
As of just a few games ago, the Orlando Magic bench ranks:
- 2nd in bench scoring
- 2nd in bench rebounding
- 2nd in bench +\-
- 3rd in bench FT%
- 4th in bench steals
- 5th in bench assists
- 5th in bench FG%
- 6th in bench blocks
Add in the progression of Suggs as a true 3 and D piece, and you can see why this team is finding success. On the season, Suggs is shooting 38.2% from 3PT range, while also being one of the premier defensive guards this season. He is currently on the brink of the top 15 for DPOY award (16th), which is a testament to his defensive work to date. The only guard/wings currently head of him are Herb Jones, Holiday, OG, Barnes and McDaniels. He is amongst great company. He also seems to bring an energy this Magic team has been lacking for a long time.
While this is a solid squad, the lack of experience will catch up with them as the season progresses. I project them to be the lower end of playoffs (8th seed). With a good off-season next year, they’ll be in contention for a top four seed in the East.
Indianna Pacers
The Pacers finished last NBA season with a 35-47 record, placing them 11th in the West. Haliburton solidified himself as a star and the pieces around him were contributing too. Picking up Jarace Walker in the draft and trading for Toppin in the off-season capped off the season. Statistically, they were a team that showed promise but needed a LOT of work, ranking 21st in offensive rating and 26th in defensive rating.
Looking at this season, the Pacers have a case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde when it comes to the two sides of the ball. Offensively, this team has been nothing short of elite. They currently have the best offensive ranking in the league, have made the 9th most 3PT shots and are 1st in pace. Six players are averaging over 12 points per game (Hali, Turner, Hield, Mathurin, Toppin and Brown) and both Haliburton and Hield are averaging over 2.5 3PM a game.
Haliburton is charging this offence, putting up some truly incredible numbers. Currently, for the season he is putting up 24.9 PPG and 11.9 APG on 50.7% FG/ 42.9% 3PT/ 86.9% FT. Despite having a usage rate of 25.4% and putting up these numbers, he’s averaging just 2.6 turnovers per game. He is also a natural leader and is clearly fulfilling a gap the team had in this department.
Some other stats that reflect his season go date:
- 4th league wide on points added (over average) on two point attempts from 3+ feet out
- 3rd in points added (over average) on three point attempts
- One of just four players (alongside White, Curry and Brunson) with 60+ 3PM on 40%+ 3PT shooting.
- 4th in BPM (+9.8), 5th in VORP (+1.5)
- In November, became one of only three players (alongside MJ and Lebron) to have ever averaged 25 and 10 with 50 and 40 percent shooting in month
- One of just three players (alongside Grant Hill and Jokic) since turnovers were tracked (1978) to record 25+ pts, 10+ reb, 10+ assist game with zero turnovers
Defensively, this team has been dreadful seeing regression on their performance from last year (which is hard to do given they were already bottom five). Despite the addition of Brown, they have the 2nd worst defensive rating on the season. Opponents have scored 120+ in seventeen out of twenty one games and 130+ in eight out of twenty one games.
An important factor to this team has been the development of Mathurin’s efficiency this season. He’s seen his field goal attempts fall from 12.2 to 11.3 per game, correspondingly his points per game have fallen from 16.7 to 14.2. Despite this, his field goal percentage has risen from 43.4% to 44.5%, as has his 3PT percentage, from 32.3% to 36.9%. There are more mouths to feed this season, but Mathurin has made the most of the opportunities given. Similarly, new recruit Toppin has recevied some flack over a perceived slow start, however, he’s 77% on 2PT FG, 38.3% 3PT% and 78.4% FT. Offensively, this is as capable a team as we’ve seen, it is the defence that needs significant adjustments.
This off-season the Packers need to address their defensive problems and get Haliburton a solidified second option. He’s managed to get them to the 8th seed despite the next highest scorer (Turner) averaging just 16.9 points per game. While it’s great to have a distribution amongst the offence, the Pacers need another scorer to enable them to compete against the top tier teams. Come playoff time, teams will start scheming traps and doubles for Haliburton, putting the responsibility of scoring onto other role players, which won’t hold up in the long run.
OKC Thunder
OKC had an impressive 22/23 season given they were one of the youngest squads in the NBA. They finished with a 40-42 record (10th seed), a massive jump from the previous season, where they went 24-58, placing mid table in offensive rating (16th) and defensive rating (13th). Going into the draft they were able select elite Kentucky defensive guard Cason Wallace and Florida State’s Keyontae Johnson.
This season, they are 9th in offensive rating and 6th in defensive rating. The OKC rebuild is one of the best constructed rebuilds I have ever seen. They managed to stock pile a war chest of picks, developed an All-NBA guard (SGA), drafted two high ceiling rookie forwards (Jalen Williams & Chet), have a great rookie secondary guard (Giddey) and a perfect supporting cast complementing the starters with added shooting (Joe, Jaylin Williams, Bertans and Kenrich Williams).
The emergence of Holgrem as a reliable, second scorer in his rookie season has catapulted this team into serious contention. Every contending team needs a strong, second tier scorer to complement the primary scorer, and Chet has provided this, averaging 16.9 ppg on 52.1% FG/ 37.3% 3PT/ 87.1% FT. In terms of Thunder Rookie ranks all-time, Holgrem through 18 games ranks:
- Points – 14th (on pace for 1st)
- Rebounds – 16th (on pace for 1st)
- Assists – 18th (on pace for 5th)
- 3s Made – 17th (on pace for 1st)
- Blocks – 5th (on pace for 1st)
The Thunder are in an interesting position, where they are brimming with talented young players and stacked with draft capital, but are also on the brink of being team that challenges in the West. This off-season is the window to aggressively shop those assets for another star to pair with SGA. The allure of Giddey, another young player and a stack of picks could be too enticing to ignore for some organisations looking to expedite the rebuilding process.
Houston Rockets
Post the Harden era, this has been a team floundering at the bottom of the league and very much in the rebuild phase. The last three NBA seasons, they’ve logged records of 17-55, 20-62 and 22-60. They’ve been a team with little offensive fluidity and serious defensive woes, ranking 27th, 30th and 29th in defensive rating over the last three seasons. While the past three seasons certainly haven’t been easy viewing, what it has enabled the Rockets to do is go into the draft and make some aggressive selections with high upside.
This off-season, they managed to lock up arguably the best available coach, Idoke. Previously taking the Celtics from a 36-36 team to a 51-31 record, his defensive oriented mindset has already spilled over into his coaching this year. The Rockets are 13-11 and have notched some notable scalps already, including the Lakers, Kings twice, Pelicans, Nuggets thrice and OKC.
The development of Sengun has happened faster than anyone could have projected, reflected in a 55 place jump on the Ringers’ NBA player rankings, placing him at 42nd. His output has also significantly increased from last season
- 14.8 ppg -> 19.9 ppg
- 9.0 rpg -> 8.9 rpg
- 3.9 apg -> 5.3 apg
He’s managed to do this remaining efficient, recording an effective field goal percentage of 55.1%. He is a Jokic prototype and at just 21 years old, will be the cornerstone of this franchise for the foreseeable future.
Off-season signings Dillon Brooks and Van Vleet have also brought much needed veteran leadership and defensive intensity. They also filled the positions desperately required by the Rockets – another 3 & D wing and a facilitating point guard.
Brooks has shown a level of restrain his teams have been yearning for. While his field goal attempts are just 10.9 per game, down from 13.4 per game, his efficiency has drastically increased. He’s averaging 14 ppg on 47.3% FG/ 39.5% 3PT/ 83% FT, compared to last season where he averaged 14.3 ppg on 39.6% FG/ 32.6% 3PT/ 77.9% FT. While is early on in the season and there’s potential for negative regression, the maturity he has shown in shot selection is impressive.
These two off-season recruits have brought a level of defensive intensity this team hasn’t seen since CP3 was on the squad. They currently have the 2nd best defensive rating on the season, a stark turnaround from their 29th ranked rating last season. While its early days, the Rockets disparity defensively between their home and road performances is slightly concerning. At home they are a defensive powerhouse, ranking 2nd in defensive rating, compared to 22nd on the road.
The risks taken on high upside draft picks have paid off for the Rockets and the foresight to demand future pick swaps from the Nets for Harden will undoubtedly come in handy in the future. This season will be telling in whether the Rockets look to try package some fringe players (Bullock, Landale, Oladipo) with picks and or some other young talent in order to land a star to propel this team forward, or continue to develop the young talent they have and hope they develop into a homegrown star without needing to forego any assets. This isn’t a team that will be close to competing this year, but with a year under the belt of Idoke and their off-season signings, this is a team that could make some noise next year pending offseason acquisitions and in-house talent development.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Finishing the NBA 22/23 season as the 8th seed, Minnesota’s 42-40 record was underwhelming given the nucleus of talent they harbour. After trading away the future for Gobert, it was common sentiment this season required some sign that this core could succeed together, otherwise a signficant trade was looming in the offseason. So far, the Timberwolves have delivered.
It is the first time in franchise history they have started the NBA season 11-3 or better. At 20-5, they currently hold the 1st seed in the Western Conference, rank 17th in offensive rating and 1st in defensive rating. The fact they have managed to post a defensive rating this high is impressive considering McDaniels, one of the best on-ball defenders in the league, has missed over five of these games.
The stark improvement of the Timberwolves can be linked directly to their stout defence. They currently have five players within the top ten for defensive rating, including Edwards, Anderson, Gobert, Naz Reid and Alexander-Walker. The TWolves rank well across nearly all meaningful defensive metrics, ranking:
- 1st in defensive rating
- 1st in dFG%
- 6th in opponent FG% at the rim
- 1st in opponent FGM at the rim
- 3rd least opposition 3PM
- 3rd worst opponent 3PT%
Offensively, Edwards continutes to thrive, improving on splits across the board. His split improvement is what is really intruiging, currently recording splits of 45.2% FG/ 38.3% 3PT/ 85.4% FT, up from 45.9% FG/ 36.9% 3PT%/ 75.6% FT. He has had 25+ points in 11/20 games and has shot 46% FG or above in 9/20 games. Importantly, he has an effective 2nd scorer in Towns, who is averaging 22.2 ppg on 51.5% FG/ 42.4% 3PT/ 90.4% FT. The ability to defer to an elite guard or forward scorer provides the Wolves with flexibility to utilise them in different situational matchups.
This Timberwolves team is a legit NBA championship contender and I am happy to stand on that hill this early on in the season. They have a top five defence, comprised of an elite G/F defender (McDaniels) who can guard the best opposition player 1-4 and a multi-DPOY in Gobert to hold down the paint area. Alongside their marquee defensive studs, the wider defence also is comprised of additional pieces with high defensive upside to complement the existing pieces. Lastly, they also have two elite scorers, something that is required for playoff success. All in all, this is a a deep, well built team that has the potential to do serious damage when the playoffs roll around.