Approaching the inaugural ‘Gather Round’ there is plenty to talk about. While mid-price mayhem was certainly the theme of the offseason, it is becoming evident apparent which of those are fantasy relevant and which are duds (I am looking at you McGrath). The MRO handed down some dubious decisions, which will no doubt have widespread impact on those coaches with young gun Will Day and leave them pondering whether he can retain a spot in their side. On top of this, injuries and rumours of players being rested are floating around, playing into the carnage which was Round 4. One thing there are certainly no complaints about is the sheer volume of footy on across the week. With a short turn around from the Easter Monday game to the opening clash between Adelaide and Carlton on Thursday, it’s a footy fans heaven. Keeping that in mind, it’s time to get into our AFL Fantasy Round 5 Buy, Sell, Keep and Avoid article.
Buy
Caleb Serong ($854k, 107.8, 79)
Serong really is a gun and is flourishing into the player many thought he would be. With a last 3 average of 116, he’s proven he’s a capable ball winner amongst a stacked Freo midfield. The biggest concern I have is his tank, similar to last season. His last 4 TOGs have been 82%, 85%, 80% and 82%. Despite this he’s finding ways to score and I think he will only build on this as the season progresses.
Jayden Hunt (518k, 77.3, 14)
Averaging 77.3 with a 3 round average of 88.3, all at just 518k. At this price point, you won’t find better, with the only comparison close being Stocker (575k, 80.5, X). While Hunt won’t be a season keeper, he is going to generate a solid amount of cash given his BE is just X. He is the perfect stepping stone and will be ripe for cashing in to a premo after a he has topped out in price.
Tom Stewart (733k, 70, 106)
Has had a rough start to the season but average is definitely misleading. Only scored 14 against the Pies due to an early injury. Has had 126 and 70 points upon return. Saw an early tag from Finn Mag, but this eased up as the came went on. Duncan pinched kick outs but I wouldn’t be too concerned, has shown his scoring capability across the last couple of season. At his price point, its a bargain.
Sell
Sam Docherty (924k, 99.8, 132)
Unfortunately, it is time for old faithful to depart our teams after suffering a meniscus tear which will see him out for the next 4-6 weeks. After putting up 110, 79, 136 and 74 it isn’t ideal to have to waste a trade on a set and forget spot, but given the recovery timeframe, it leaves us with no other choice.
Suitable replacements for Dochery:
Dawson (863k, 99, 100)
Showed his fantasy relevance last year and consistently scored well. Scores of 92, 101, 81 and 122 to start the season. Daicos (879k, 114.3, X) Looks like he will be a serious fantasy pig this year. 114, 117, 100 and 126 to start the season. Has the benefit of kick outs and is always searching for the ball. His hunger leads to a lot of easy +6s and 1-2s.
Sicily (881k, 99.5, 132)
Great aerially and as a result gets a lot of grabs. Takes his fair share of kick ins amongst a Hawthorn backline which love to share it around. 130, 87, 132 and 49 to start the season. Uncharacteristically had a combined 17 points across the last 3 quarters of the Geelong game. Will see a lot of the ball through opposition entries given the Hawks look to be a weak team again this year. If you already have these options or are wanting to look elsewhere, I would also look into the players below.
Tom Stewart (733k, 70, 106)
Further explained in the buy section above!
POD pick: Lachie Weller (724k, 95.7, 63, 2.7% ownership)
Weller has come back into this GC side and is really getting into his work, registering fantasy scores of 88, 90 and 109. If you have a look through the GC back lines recent scores, you see they love to chip it around, leading to a ton of +6s. On top of this, Weller is on kick outs – am yet to see him take one without stepping outside the square. Obviously riskier, but with an ownership of just 2.7% could yield big rewards at his price point.
Sell Continued
Horne Francis (567k, 67.3, 70)
While he loves a hard ball and is a gun footy player, his game isn’t necessarily translating across to fantasy. With scores of 90, 42, 68 and 69, he hasn’t yet been able to capitalise on some great starts. His habit to fade away in the 4th has cost coaches – 3pts v COL and 5pts v ADL in the 4th quarter. His break even is now 70, so he will likely be loosing cash or only slightly increasing. Time to end the experiment.
McGrath (704k, 78.3, 99)
81, 88, 79 and 65 to start the season and has lost 15k in value. Just doesn’t get enough marks in his role – is yet to eclipse 6 this season. On top of this, Is handball happy which doesn’t translate well to fantasy.
Keep
Will Day (727K, 104, 45)
Day is really finding his feet and prior to this week I would have labelled him as a ‘must have’. A CBA% of 58% is good enough to place him in 3rd teamwide, slightly behind Worpel and Newcombe, however, has been trending upwards. With scores of 98, 92, 128 and 99, his consistency has rewarded owners, especially those who started with him at the start of the season (190K increase over 4 weeks). Day was recently charged with 2 weeks by the MRO for his tackle on Close, however, Hawthorn are in the process of appealing this charge. Given the nature of the tackle it would be stiff to give him 2 weeks IMO.
For those looking at the Will Day tackle.
One thing to consider is the right foot of Brad Close getting stuck under the leg of Will Day.
Close unable to hold any balance with the tackle also being applied. pic.twitter.com/u8aAIZ1h5A
— Pete (@aflratingsPete) April 10, 2023
Regardless of the outcome, Day is a hold in my books. You won’t find the same value for output anywhere, especially at a price point of just over 700k and will end up having to trade in back in after his suspension anyway.
Duncan (840k, 127, 80)
Coming off injury, he put up 127 in a drubbing against the Hawks. Firstly, he doesn’t get to play teams like the Hawks every week. While it’s a lovely fixture to return too, it definitely won’t be the norm. While I am not writing off Duncan for the whole season, I think we need another 1-2 weeks to truly see what his role will be like. More importantly, I think there are better players at his price point, who are less injury prone. Sicily, Daicos and Dawson are all similar in price and also have more upside.
Wrap up
If you have any thoughts on the AFL Fantasy Round 5 article, please leave them below. Happy to answer any other trade questions you may have too!
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