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AFL Fantasy – The Round 5 Wrap-up

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Culminating what was a successful weekend of AFL, the inaugural Gather Round had sell outs across all nine games, with more than 220,000 people attending the matches, including 60,000 from interstate. The early mail is that Gather Round will be staying in South Australia for the next three seasons, hosting the 2024, 2025 and 2026 rounds. With the first ever Gather Round done and dusted, it’s time to review the week that was Round 5.

Winners

In the first AFL game of the round, Mr Consistent, Jordan Dawson (889k, 105.8, 100) came up big for owners after being a popular downgrade option for the injured Docherty. Ending up on 133, it seems greedy to say slightly disappointing, however after being on 96 at the half it looked like he was set for a 150+. 92, 101, 81, 122 and 133 in his last 5 games, he is a set and forget. Other popular Adelaide premo Laird (911k, 96.8, 143) also delivered for owners that held the faith in him, (particularly me, as he was a ‘hold’ in my recent article) pumping out 118. While it is only his 2nd game putting up a 100+ score, with Hawthorn next up, owners should expect big things. This game also saw the return of Sam Walsh (910k, 102, 115) who recorded 25 disposals and 7 tackles, culminating in 102 fantasy points. Impressive considering his TOG was only 76%, look for him to get into his work and become the fantasy option we all know he can be.

The second game brought an interesting game style, with a narrower, smaller ground. This was conducive of Gold Coast’s chippy play style through the backline, with Macpherson (11 marks) and Ballard (9 marks) benefitting, but not overly fantasy relevant. Serong (891k, 111.2, 79) shone again and showed why he is a legitimate fantasy asset this year. Averaging 111.2 over his last 3, he is getting a ton of the footy, racking up 35, 28 and 37 disposals over this period.

Sydney (18.14.122) absolutely ran over Richmond (11.12.78), posing big question marks over whether the Tigers will be good enough this year to play finals footy. This didn’t stop Liam Baker (728k, 93.2, 61) from putting up another big score (122). This is now his 3rd score over 100 this year and bumps his 3 round average to 103.7. He is racking up the footy currently and is a great upgrade option for those needing a versatile defender.

Neale (841k, 92.4, 123) registered just his 2nd score over 100 for the season, ending on a much needed 116. With a breakeven of 123, he could be a tasty addition to add to the midfield stocks at a bottomed out price. He has a great run with GWS, Freo, Carlton, Essendon and the Suns to come over his next 5 games, so could even be an upgrade option this week.

Merrett (928k, 107.6, 117) was a stud in a dominant Essendon team who convinced beat championship favourites Melbourne. Registering 119, he’s been extremely consistent on the season, with previous scores of 107, 100, 103 and 109. A dangerous tackle sees him charged with a one match ban. If this is upheld, owners should hold given he will be a season keeper.

Rozee (791k, 93.2, 103) 108 put up a tidy score thanks to a 16 disposals second half and rewarded owner faith after a poor showing previously against Sydney (69). Will be an integral part of this Port team and at just 781k, is a lock up forward for fantasy teams. English (996k, 122.2, 91) 123 continues to put up big scores, taking his three round average to 126.3. Yet to dip under 111 on the season, immense.

Newcombe (770k, 90.6, 100) 119 and Worpel (616k, 84, 61) 114, wow owners needed this one. After playing mind games all week, Mitchell in fact u-turned on his comments that Worpel and Newcombe would see a fair share of time up forward. Both ran riot in the guts without Will Day, showing glimpses of what owners were expecting pre the season commencing. Both are definitely holds next week with Day still out due to suspension, however, I would be looking to move Worpel on after Day’s return. Coniglio 115 (843k, 97.4, 123) continues his strong season and is a genuine option as a forward in fantasy given his DPP status – will be one I am eyeing off in the coming rounds.

Nick Daicos (923k, 118.6, 81)….. I think we can leave it at that can’t we? A career high 42 disposals and a game high 136 fantasy. At his breakeven, he is only going to skyrocket in price and with a season average of 118.6, he is 100% a buy, no brainer. This will likely be the last week he can be purchased at a relatively affordable price. Marshall (x, x, x) 134 also had a day out, however, probably was expected given the Pies ruck stocks are completely depleted. Regardless, he is a stud, only going under 100 once this season against a tough opposition (Freo). Averaging 113.7 over his last 3, owners with both him and English as R1 and R2 are in dreamland.

Losers

Brayshaw (927k, 100.8, 130) was the first big loser of the weekend, putting up just 72 fantasy points, extremely disappointing against a Gold Coast side who have been giving up big fantasy scores to oppositions. Potentially losing a bit of footy he would have got last year to Serong, regardless he is a set and forget option which should be in most sides by the end of the season. Will Brodie (737k, 62.7, 133) has had a big fall from grace given his breakout year last year. Putting up just 52, any owners still holding on have to sell ASAP. Add Ryan (863k, 104.2, 110) to the list, mustering up just 69 in this one.

Kysaiah Pickett (619k, 89.3, 27) was a popular purchase option at just 592k this week after scoring 120 and 87 in his previous two games. He came falling back to earth against Essendon, putting up just 61. Definitely not a fantasy option and will have a high variance in scores across the season, would steer well clear, unless you are looking for a short term cash grab.

Liberatore (880k, 105, 88) 80 dished out his lowest score of the season. After looking like a great fantasy option (114, 98, 119 & 114) in previous games, he is definitely a hold. As a POD at 3.8% it does hurt for owners who have him, but this is definitely offset by his performances in the previous 4 weeks.

LDU (857k, 99.5, 99) 76 disappointed, dishing up his lowest score of the season. North’s midfield were comprehensively overrun by a much better Lions outfit, leaving little chance for LDU to impact the fantasy scoreboard. Has Gold Coast next game who gave typically been leaky this year – if he dishes up another subpar score whether he can be held long term will need to be re-evaluated.

Redman (794k, 93.8, 83) 74 continues his yo-yo season. Scores of 104, 103, 66, 122 and 74 is definitely not anything to look down upon, but with a plethora of other fantasy assets available in defence, I wouldn’t be jumping on the Reddog train.

Horne Francis (567k, 67.2, 70) is a gun footy player, don’t get me wrong, but he is definitely a sell for owners that have the luxury to do so. After scoring 90 in the first round, owners would have expect JHF to be in for a big season. Since, he has scored 42, 68, 69 and 67 points and hasn’t been able to take the leap in registering a big score due to his tendency to go completely missing for a quarter.

Lastly, rookies as a whole make it into the loser list this week. Outside of Ashcroft (534k, 78, 18) 91 and Sheezel (748k, 113.8, 6) not a single popular rookie eclipsed scores over 55. Ginbey injury also adds to the rookie pain, though we are yet to see if it was serious or just precautionary at this stage. Chandler (460k, 67.8, 20) 41, JVR (306k, 51, -3) 28, Pedlar (380k, 59.8, -3) 47 and Cowan (311k, 40.2, 22) 39 were just a few of the sub average scores dished out.

Intriguing Prospects

Rachelle (656k, 89.4, 51) continues to perform well, which places him as a great POD choice, especially with owners looking to upgrade underperforming rookies (e.g Chandler) who are peaking in price. At just 4.9% and averaging 89.4 over this last 5, his electric game style has translated well into fantasy and he is slated to continue his breakout year – 105, 85, 75, 86 and 96 points to start the year is impressive. Chayce Jones (486k, 75.3, 36) – 33, 85 and 108 points, he couldn’t be an option, could he?

Corey Wagner (299k, 54, 36) played his role on debut for Freo, scoring a respectable 54. At close to $300k he is a rookie to consider, especially if he can hold his place in the team. It is a bit of a minefield for rookies currently, especially those that can consistently score well. Matt Roberts (213k, 29.8, 47) 64 is another one to eye off after impressing in a big Sydney win. Was solid across the board with 14 disposals and 4 tackles, looks promising.

Jeremy Cameron (887k, 110.8, 63) 93 dished up another great performance and is in the box seat for the Coleman after kicking a combined 22 goals over his last 5 games. Has put up 85, 138, 101, 137 and 93 to date, pushing his case to be a consistent fantasy asset. I tend to veer away from key forward in fantasy, but Cameron’s versatility sees him floating back and also getting time in the midfield, which IMO makes him a viable option for fantasy selection.

Brad Crouch (962k, 113.2, 98) 118 put up another great score, taking his three round average to 121.7. With Steele to return next week I am hesitant to buy, especially with restrictive fantasy opposition Port Adelaide on the horizon. If he continues to perform and role is there, targeting him in Round 8 v North Melbourne would be the ideal buy spot.

Tim Kelly (851k, 105.4, 56) is another one to add to the upgrade watch list. 100 against a relatively restrictive Geelong team and prior scores of 79, 102, 104 and 142. I would hold off for a few weeks with Port Adelaide and Carlton on the horizon, but has a stretch upcoming including Gold Coast, Hawthorn and Essendon in which he could be a nice pickup.